Week 38: Not a bad case of nom noms
We dive deep into weather forecasts and where they're going!
Monday
Today’s Awesome:
A lot of focus is on predicting and understanding the climate, but what about, you know, just the weather? For starters, how important is it? What can we do with better forecasts? Quite a few reasons.
You may have noticed that weather forecasts on your cellphone are reasonably accurate for the next three to five days, but very iffy eight to 10 days out. This may not matter much to you, except when you are planning a camping or sailing trip, or an outdoor event, like a wedding. But it matters a lot to a farmer who has to decide on optimal timing for planting, harvesting, and irrigation, or an electric utility manager who needs to plan for the expected supply of solar or wind energy to the grid. It matters to airport, train, and truck operators who worry about major weather events impeding their functions; to those engaged in preparation for and prevention of weather-related disasters; and to insurers who need accurate historical and projected weather and climate data to assess and price risks.
Let’s dive in!
For Your Consideration:
Tuesday
Today’s Awesome:
Weather forecasts have a long and storied history. Immerse yourself in it here, in a throwback, to the Encyclopedia Britannica.
The Greek philosophers had much to say about meteorology, and many who subsequently engaged in weather forecasting no doubt made use of their ideas. Unfortunately, they probably made many bad forecasts, because Aristotle, who was the most influential, did not believe that windis air in motion. He did believe, however, that west winds are cold because they blow from the sunset.
For Your Consideration:
Wednesday
Today’s Awesome:
A little more history with cool clip on how weather forecasts keep getting better:
The supercomputers have brought improved accuracy, too. In 2015, the E.C.M.W.F.’s six-day forecast was as good as its three-day forecast was in 1975. In 2012, its computers correctly foresaw Hurricane Sandy at least six days in advance. By 2025, they are expected to be able to detect high-impact events two weeks into the future.
For Your Consideration:
Thursday
Today’s Awesome:
A big trend in forecasts: “nowcasting,” often with the help of deep learning models.
For Your Consideration:
Friday
Today’s Awesome:
A little video format explainer on nowcasting:
For Your Consideration:
Saturday
Today’s Awesome:
One company in the weather prediction business is launching its own satellites! In a podcast with the company founder I listened to recently, the company doing this is doing so because outside of advanced countries, weather data isn’t always good. And weather radar from space is apparently still not a very big thing. They’re still flying planes into hurricanes to use radar to understand it better. More satellite weather seems like an awesome idea.
For Your Consideration:
Sunday
Today’s Awesome:
And one big thing that might help weather prediction in the future? Quantum computers. In fact, IBM is working on that now!
For Your Consideration:
Outro:
Alright, and the weekly average on Sunday was: 188.9, down almost full pound from 189.8 last week! We hit a low on Thursday of 187.8, so that was nice. And I stayed just a few pounds shy of the complete weekly limit. So not as good as the week before, but almost.
Sadly, I’ve been skimping out on my VR adventures. We did have a lot more family things going on this week, so I don’t feel too bad though.